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Rugby League
Melbourne and Manly will battle it out for rugby league supremacy on Sunday evening, and while Melbourne were competition favourites for most of 2008, it is the Sea Eagles who will go in as public elects.
The media circus that has surrounded the suspension of Cameron Smith seems to have turned punters away from the Storm as there has been little or no interest in them this week. The opening prices saw Melbourne at 2.00 with Manly at 1.80, but constant support (including two $5000 bets) has seen the price for Manly cut to 1.75.
Manly are a side that most league supporters despise (unless of course you follow them), but it seems as though there is a strong 'anti Melbourne' feeling out there, and that is being felt in the betting ring. Melbourne did a mighty job of disposing of the Sharks last week, and it was Cooper Cronk who stepped up to the plate.
Our league analyst thinks there is nothing between these two sides, so we will be taking the Sea Eagles on. All of the normal betting options (as well as several more) will be available, and the most popular of those is always the Clive Churchill Medal. Punters normally latch on to the backs, but they haven't always been the winners of this prestigious award. Two of the last five winners have been hookers, and of the 20 Churchill Medals that have been awarded, nine of those have gone to locks or props.
Cooper Cronk is our opening 6.00 favourite ahead of Billy Slater, Brett Stewart and Matt Orford at 8.00, but we will be keeping on the side of Manly's Anthony Watmough (10.00) and Michael Crocker (15.00) from Melbourne. For either side to win, both Watmough and Crocker will be all important, so that is where the value lies.
Australian Rules
Hawthorn will go into the record books as the winner of the 2008 AFL flag, and that victory provided plenty of relief for bookies.
Geelong had been favourites all year, but the amazing thing was that when Grand Final week came around, the Cats were a better price (1.45) than the 1.35 that was on offer the previous two weeks. There were some signs of fatigue in their match against the Bulldogs, but the experts did point out that a similar thing happened against Collingwood last year before Geelong went on to thump Hawthorn.
That was a valid point, but Hawthorn always looked a more dangerous prospect than Port was last year. It was also interesting to see that punters didn't really latch on to the Hawks, with their price drifting from 2.90 out to 3.20 at kick off. Normally in a grand final of any code there are massive amounts of support for the underdogs, but this time around it didn't eventuate. The biggest bet that Lasseters took for the Hawks was $15,000 at 2.90, with Geelong attracting a wager of $22,000 at 1.45.
The Cats ending up starting at 1.36 on the back of some heavy multi activity, mostly coupled up with Manly to beat the Warriors in the NRL, so it was more than a handy result for a side that we were already standing in premiership betting. With Geelong losing, that also saw massive liabilities disappear for a Cats/Melbourne Storm premiership double.
With Hawthorn winning, most of the exotic bets on the Grand Final went the way of the bookies, and we even had a winning result on the Norm Smith Medal! Luke Hodge was well in the betting at 14.00, but there had been a lot of talk about the fact that if he was to play, it may well be with broken ribs.
It all came out afterwards that his ribs were bruised, not broken, but the rumours seemed to turn punters away. The most significant wager for Hodge was a bet of $500, with punters preferring the Geelong midfield and of course Buddy Franklin. Gary Ablett ended up running second in the Norm Smith, four votes in arrears of Hodge, and Ablett will be the favourite for next year's Brownlow Medal when markets are issued.
Formula One
Fernando Alonso went into Sunday's Singapore Grand Prix as one of the outsiders of the field at 67.00, and the lucky win by the Spaniard gave bookies an unexpected result.
Alonso had actually performed quite well in a couple of the free practice sessions, but had some problems in the qualifying sessions which saw him start from 15 on the grid. That all but ended any chance he had as it was always going to be hard to make ground on the street circuit from so far back in the field.
He worked his way through the field, and several mishaps saw Alonso hold a handy lead with just seven laps left. Adrian Sutil crashed into a wall at that stage which saw the safety car come out, but Alonso was able to maintain the front position and he went on to beat Nico Rosberg (151.00) and Lewis Hamilton, who started second elect at 3.00.
Race favourite Felipe Massa appeared to be on track for victory until a major mishap occurred at one of his pit stops. The Brazilian was given a green light after a fuel stop, but when he took off, the fuel hose was still attached to his car. That was the end of Massa’s chances, as well as those who had backed him. After being 3.50 earlier in the week, Massa started the race as a 1.80 chance, backed in from 2.00 after grabbing pole position. There is little doubt Massa has been the unlucky driver of season 2008, and he could quite easily have been leading up the driver�s championship table. Instead, it is Lewis Hamilton who holds all the aces, and he is now 1.33 to take the title with Massa at 3.25.
Motor Bikes
Yamaha's Valentino Rossi was simply just too good in the Japanese MotoGP on Sunday, and Rossi wrapped up another rider's title with another impressive win.
Rossi started from fourth on the grid, and while we were of the opinion that he may ride cautiously to ensure enough points to win the title, punters saw it differently, and profited accordingly. Lasseters opened Rossi at 3.00 after qualifying was over, but sustained support (including one bet of 1800 euro) saw Rossi oust Casey Stoner as favourite.
At race time, Rossi was in to 2.40, with Stoner easing out to 2.65 after being 2.25 on Sunday morning. Stoner was no match for Rossi who went on to win his fifth race on end, but the result does make for an intriguing race this weekend in Australia. Rossi has the title, Stoner will be desperate to win on home soil, and Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo showed enough in Japan to say that they are close to nearing their best form. Aussie punters love Rossi, so we expect there will be plenty of support for both Rossi (2.25) and Stoner (2.50), but we rate the other two riders a real threat around Phillip Island.