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Rugby League
Queensland has wrapped up the 2008 Origin series 2-1, and punters came out well ahead on the decider.
After opening at 1.70 when the second game was over, Queensland went into Wednesday's clash as firm 1.58 favourite, with the handicap moving from -3½ into -4. Several $5000 bets were struck for the Maroons to beat the spread, but fortunately there was some interest in the Blues (The two biggest bets being $6000) which helped our cause somewhat.
Practically every option on the game was won by the favourite, with Israel Folau (11.00) being the top pick for the first try scorer, and the same player well in commission at 15.00 to be the man of the match. The series belonged to Queensland, but courtesy of a win in game three, it also belonged to punters.
So, can the Maroons make it four in a row? Betting is already open for next year, with Queensland short priced favourites at 1.55 and New South Wales at 2.40. The Blues only get one game at home next year, but so do the Queenslanders with the other match due to be played in Melbourne.
Things return to some normality now, although the Gold Coast Titans now face an uphill battle to make the finals. They were going along nicely until the Origin series began, but a couple of narrow losses, and now with Scott Prince out for several weeks, all of a sudden the Titans have blown from 11.00 out to 34.00 to win the title. Given that the Melbourne Storm have had nine players (and a coach) tied up for the past eight weeks, they have emerged from the SOO series relatively unscathed, and that is probably why we took close to $13,000 in bets for the Storm to go top last week at 2.90. They are now 2.50, and while they may struggle to finish with the minor premiership, they are clearly the standout side of the competition, and look the goods to go back to back.
Australian Rules
Bookies have been able to stage some kind of a fight back in the AFL with several major upsets over the past two weeks.
There were only six games on last weekend due to the split round, and only two of those favourites were able to salute, those teams being Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. The win by Melbourne over Brisbane was one that punters didn’t see coming, although Lasseters did find a few punters early in the week who thought the Demons could win. On Thursday we took a win bet of $3000 for Melbourne at 5.00, and another bet of $8000 for them with 28½ points start, but by game time the handicap had blown out to 34 start, and the win price to 6.25.
The loss by Brisbane killed off practically every big multi for the weekend, and it also had some ramifications for end of season betting. Melbourne had been nearly unbackable at 1.20 to win the wooden spoon, but following on from that win have eased right out to 1.80, with the Eagles the big firmer, now into 2.30, with Fremantle the only other team in contention at 7.00. It is hard to believe that both Fremantle and the West Coast were two of the best backed sides to win the flag before the season started, and it now appears a strong chance that the dreaded spoon may be headed in their direction.
The money said that Chris Judd would be out of the Carlton side to play Richmond, but the Blues put up another stunning performance to win. Carlton has made a bit of a habit of coming from behind, and this was a crucial game for both sides. There is a log-jam at the bottom end of the eight, so every victory counts and Carlton will be eagerly awaiting Judd’s return from concussion. The Blues did touch 2.40 at one stage (after opening 1.85 favs), and although there was one late bet of $10,000 for them with 9½ points start, it was a handy win for us.
We also got a result when St Kilda came from a hopeless position to beat the Kangaroos on Saturday night. It wasn’t a great betting game as both sides have been struggling to maintain consistent form, and it was a real battle to get something out of the Roos who drifted from 1.65 out to 1.75. After initially taking money for the Roos at 1.65, punters then latched onto St Kilda (2.30 into 2.10), before a couple of hefty last minute bets (one of $10,000) came for the Kangaroos conceding 5½ points start ensured that we were looking for a St Kilda win. After trailing by nearly six goals, the Saints found some of the form we know they are capable of, and perhaps their season isn’t over just yet.
There are only two games to worry about this weekend, Adelaide will host Geelong, and the Swans will play Collingwood at the controversial ANZ Stadium. Collingwood will be getting back several players, and Sydney will be without Adam Goodes after his indiscretion a fortnight ago. The surface at ANZ Stadium is again coming under some close scrutiny, and of course Sydney does lose the advantage they hold on the smaller SCG ground by playing at ANZ. Collingwood has won three of the five matches played at ANZ, and we are tipping they can repeat the dose this week. The Swans have been reasonably hard to sell in early trading, having drifted from 1.45 out to 1.52, and that is a sure sign that their supporters also view this as a danger game.
Adelaide will be without veteran mid-fielder Andrew McLeod for their clash with Geelong, and while the Crows hold an impressive 8-2 win rate against the Cats at AAMI Stadium, the recent form of the two sides suggests that the Cats deserve to be the 1.20 shots that they are. We have noticed a lot of little bets for the Crows who have firmed from 5.00 into 4.60, but once the handicap of 25 points start to Adelaide was opened, we immediately took a bet of $3000 for Geelong.
As far as flag betting is concerned, Geelong remain clear public elects at 2.20 ahead of both Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs at 5.00, with the Sydney Swans (8.00) the only other side given any consideration at this stage of the season.
Rugby Union
International Tests always are a little tricky to predict but even the most ardent Azzurri fan would have had trouble predicting the boilover in Cordoba on Saturday evening as Italy snatched a last gasp 13-12 victory over Argentina.
The first game in which The Wallabies unconvincingly beat France 34-13 was a little more predictable. Betting was very slow over the weekend as punters were not keen to take the 18½ points on offer either the Wallabies or France and the 1.06 to win was treated like poison. Betting on the second international was a little more active as we gave 1.16 and 13½ Argentina while Italy was 4.50 and receiving the start. Our first wager was $3,000 from a local client on Italy at the points followed by a further 2,000 from a client from the UK. We were happy to stand the home side so we moved the points to 12½ and shortened the price into 4.25 which completely stifled the betting. No more business meant that the result proved to be a poor one, especially after the first game was a non event.
Things get a little more serious this week with the start of the Tri Nations series. New Zealand host South Africa at Westpac Stadium in Wellington in what may prove to be the decider when looking at the draw. The Boks must play in New Zealand twice in a row before heading to Perth to take on the Wallabies the following week. They then have a week off before hosting the All Blacks then the Wallabies twice at home, so a win this week could give them four wins which may be enough.
The Boks have also come down under with their strongest possible squad and although De Villiers has yet to assemble that team on the park at the one time he still has the arsenal at his disposal. The All Blacks on the other hand have Captain Richie McCaw out for another couple of weeks and are further weekend by the loss of Brendan Leonard and Richard Kahui. Take into account that you have Rodney So’oialo playing openside flanker and you have an All Black squad of a different stroke. Luckily Dan Carter is there to steer the ship and their tight five is as strong as ever, but if the Boks wish to break an 11 year drought on New Zealand soil they will have no better time than this.
Betting opened with the All Blacks 1.50 and conceding 5½ points and the Boks 2.60. Our first wager was $5,000 on the All Blacks conceding the start from a fellow competitor and that was backed up by a further $4,000 from a Sydney client. The All Blacks have now firmed into 1.48 and a flat 6 points and if the money is any indicator that will be shorter by kick off. If that is the case I’d wait until the 11th hour as a punter and get the best start available the Springboks as I have no doubt they are as well prepared for this Tri Nations as they have any in the past.
Also on Saturday night the Wallabies host a second string team from France in Brisbane for their final lead up to their Tri Nations campaign. The Wallabies are 1.06 with France at 9.00 and the handicap is 21½. This is still a tough one to pick as France have made nine changes to the side which was beaten last week while the Wallabies have made a few positional changes which includes the loss of Wycliff Palu. The Wallabies should be too good but they were not impressive enough for me last week to put my hard earned on. A lack of business seems to indicate that punters feel the same.
Golf
Kenny Perry captured his second PGA tour title of the season when he held off Bubba Watson and fellow veteran Woody Austin to take the Buick Open by a shot.
The win catapulted him to fourth on the US Ryder Cup team standings, and now his dream will become a reality when he returns to Valhalla, the scene of his 1996 PGA Championship loss to Mark Brooks in a play-off.
Betting on the Buick Open may have been down turnover wise however, punters were again keen to back their fancy as we went to the line standing more than ten players. While the stakes weren’t as high as usual the encouraging sign is that punters can now see some value with Woods on the sideline. Those well backed included Scott Verplank at 29.00, Lucas Glover, Tom Pernice and Rocco Mediate all at 51.00; however, they failed to give their backers too much to cheer about. Glover faring the best by finishing three off the pace. The trend this season has been to often give the top of the betting a miss and attempt to find value in the 26.00 to 151.00 bracket, thus giving the betting a new lease of life. As with most weeks Jim Furyk had few admirers and oddly so did the winner in Kenny Perry.
This week we head to the Congressional Golf and Country Club in Bethesda for the AT&T National. The defending champion is K.J Choi but like so many defending champions before him he has been sadly out of touch. Jim Furyk heads the betting again and once again he has attracted no attention; however those on his heals have been the median of heavy support. Mike Weir 23.00, Anthony Kim 26.00, Robert Allenby (26.00 into 17.00) and Stuart Appleby (29.00 into 23.00) have all been baked to win in excess of $20,000. Throw in Jeff Quinney and Rocco Mediate at 51.00, along with some interest for the like of Ben Crane (31.00) and Lucas Glover at 41.00 and you have another vibrant betting affair. With further quality in the guise of K.J Choi, Trevor Immelman and Aussie Rod Pampling, you have an event which should once again prove tough to predict.
Motor Bikes
Casey Stoner is back in a big way, and his emphatic victory in Assen on Saturday, and the failure of Valentino Rossi, has opened the championship race right up.
Lasseters had Stoner at 4.00 to win the title before the weekend, but he has rocketed into 2.65, narrowly behind Rossi at 2.00. Dani Pedrosa finished second behind Stoner, and that has seen him take the title lead on 171 points, but we have seen little interest in Pedrosa at 4.00.
The race in Holland was always going to be a real indication of where the Aussie was at, and the ease of his victory was proof that he is back in town. Casey and Valentino started the week as co-favourites at 2.50, but after qualifying fastest, Stoner went in as a hot 1.70 chance, ahead of Rossi at 3.50.
There was a lot of small interest in the overall winner book, but the podium placing book yielded some unexpected profits when Rossi crashed in the opening lap. There were a lot of bets for Rossi to finish on the podium (largest being 5000 euro) at the short odds of 1.30, and those punters would have been horrified when he parted company with his bike shortly after the start. To his credit, he climbed back on, and realistically did a good job to finish in 11th spot. We can look forward to some spectacular racing ahead as this trio fight out for the championship title.
Formula One
All eyes will be on Englishman Lewis Hamilton this weekend to see if he can recapture some form and snare the British F1 GP.
Hamilton was the fastest qualifier at Silverstone last year, but had to settle for a distant third behind Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso. The McLarens have struggled over the past few races, and that was never more evident than in France two weeks ago where Ferrari finished 1-2 for the second year running when Felippe Massa defeated Raikkonen.
The Silverstone track has a history of favouring the cars that are the fastest in qualifying, and for that reason alone the Ferraris, and Hamilton, head the betting. Raikkonen is favourite at 2.35 ahead of both Massa and Hamilton at 3.50, then a huge gap to Robert Kubica at 13.00. The early interest has been around Massa to make it two wins on the trot, but as always, most punters will be waiting for the first round of qualifying.