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Australian Rules
Punters came out of the woodwork to back the Eagles last week, and the big win Carlton had over the West Coast was an unexpected bonus start to the weekend.
The Eagles came in from 2.40 to start the game at 2.10, and there were also some sizeable bets (including one of $12,000) on them with 10 points-start. The Eagles are a rabble, and it doesn't look like improving any time soon. All of a sudden they are pressing Melbourne as wooden spoon favourites (2.50), and we can consider ourselves lucky that nobody took the big odds for the Eagles to run last.
There was some smart money for sides around them, with one AFL expert placing $200 on Fremantle at 100/1, at the same time backing Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Carlton, so the Eagles could easily have been on his list. Prior to last weekend's results, Melbourne was 1.20, but their shock win over the Dockers has opened the 'race for last' right up.
Melbourne's win wasn't a huge surprise, but the way it came about was. As we reported last week, there had been interest in the Demons to win at 3.60, and also with 24½ points-start. When they were 50 points behind, even the most supreme optimist could not have envisaged what was about to happen, but once again, that highlights the great uncertainty in sport. Fremantle were taken in most of the big multis for the day, so the result was well received.
The other outsider to get the chocolates for the weekend was the Bulldogs, and that was another terrific result. We said last week we were going to risk the Swans, and we did, but it was a lot harder task than we thought it would be. They drifted from 1.47 out to 1.56 at game time, but we did take bets of $12,000 (1.55), $8000 at 1.54, and a $10,000 wager for them conceding 13 points-start. The Bulldogs just keep rolling along, doing us a favour each week, and are now 12.00 third picks to win the flag. There has been little interest shown in them to be premiers, but are a much better side than most are giving them credit for.
This week there is only one match on, where Victoria will play the 'Dream Team'. Considering how much effort was put into the concept, it must be disappointing for the AFL to sit back and see how many of the clubs now don't want to embrace the idea. As far as betting is concerned, it has been fairly quiet up until this point in time, but that will all change once we all have some idea of the sides that are likely to take the field. Most of the early bets have been for Victoria who has moved from 1.80 into 1.65, but there has been a little support for the Dream Team at the 8½ point handicap.
Geelong has drifted slightly this week to win the flag even though they recorded another win last Saturday. The Cats are out to 2.25 (from 2.10), with a couple of reasons behind that move. The first is that there has been a couple of chinks exposed in the Cat armoury over recent weeks, with Melbourne, Fremantle and Brisbane serving it right up to them, and you could hardly say that each of those sides are in stellar form. The other factor is Hawthorn. The Hawks also remain unbeaten this year, and if they were to play Geelong this week, the Cats would be favourites...but only just! Hawthorn is now into 3.75, with better being available elsewhere, but in our opinion the gap is too wide between the pricing of the two, so we are happy to 'clout' on Hawthorn for the time being.
Brownlow medal betting has been an intriguing race this season, and there are a host of names at the head of the betting charts at the moment. One name that is surprising is Matthew Richardson. 'Richo' has been a great player for Richmond for an eternity, but always seems to cop the brunt of most flak directed at the club. However, he has been the main reason behind their improved form over the last three weeks, and has come in from 500/1 a month ago, to be now breathing down the neck of the favourites at 13.00, and punters are getting behind him!
Rugby Union
It was a poor week for the bagmen in Super 14s last week but more importantly a bad week for Australian teams who were expected to mount a challenge for the title.
The Waratahs were disappointing against the Bulls in Pretoria and the Brumbies, although gallant in Cape Town, were not up to the challenge of beating the Stormers at home. And to add insult to injury the best two backed teams of the week, the Blues and Stormers both savaged the judge and covered the handicap to boot.
No doubt the semi-final race is alive and well and we again have a couple of games which are going to go a long way in shaping the semis however perhaps the most significant involve Auatralian teams. We kick off on Friday with the Hurricanes hosting an injury ravaged Force in Wellington and although the Force are out of semi final contention they can go a long way into giving the other five teams in search of one of those berths a pleasant surprise. The Hurricanes are 1.26 and must concede 10½ points to a team capable of upsetting the best sides on their day.
In the meantime we have a spate of favourites who look as though they have too much to play for, with the Bulls, Blues, Crusaders, Sharks and Chiefs all looking tough to beat, before the final and most important game of Week 13 as the Stormers host the Waratahs in Cape Town Saturday night. The Stormers are 1.62 and must concede 3½ points to the Waratahs who must win to stay in contention. The Waratahs are 2.35 and given the seriousness of their situation I believe they represent good value at that price. No doubt the task of facing the Reds in Brisbane the following week will be a motivating factor in this game to round off a week where punters have not been too keen to get involved.
Rugby League
South Sydney has worked out how to finally win a game, and that is to kick half of your side out of the team!
How ironic was it that the market we opened during the week on which team would win first between Souths and Melbourne in the AFL would see a result by the end of the week, and even more amazing that they both won. It was not a flash week as far as betting goes with punters getting the better of us, and the win by Souths was nowhere near the big result that most thought it would be. We found plenty of money rolling in for Souths, even after it was confirmed that Matt Bowen would be a late inclusion in the Cowboys side. Travelling sides that have to concede the start have had an atrocious record this season, and the Cowboys are now another one to add to that list. Souths touched 2.85 at one stage, but eventually started at 2.75.
We thought Canberra could beat the Warriors, and that was a costly match for us when the Kiwis defeated the Raiders 14-6. One New South Wales based league enthusiast led the way with a bet of $8000 on New Zealand conceding 5½ points start, and although the result went against us, there was always a strong chance we would get the cash as this game was played in shocking conditions.
Parramatta put on a terrific display to beat Penrith, and although the Eels went in as slight favourites, we could not get a cracker out of them. The Panthers were backed from 1.95 into 1.90, and while the largest bet was only $8800, they did carry 90 percent of the bets taken. It is hard to know whether Parramatta are back on track or not, but we have just cut their premiership price to 13.00 on the off chance they can keep winning.
Last weekend we noticed a serious downturn in league betting, and that would have been due solely to the fact that the rep players had to back up. We are all confronted with the same problem again this week, and knowing the way the Kiwis love to smash the Aussies, Friday night's Test has all but put a stop to betting on the weekend. Firstly the Test, everybody is aware of what happened last year when the Aussies won 58-0, but I don't think that it will be anywhere near that this time around. The New Zealanders have a tactical plus by getting Wayne Bennett on board, and even though Darren Lockyer is out of the side, Bennett's experience with most of the Aussie players, and how they play, will be a major benefit for the Kiwis. The handicap has been set at -16½, and we will be looking for money on Australia at that line. Early trading has been as quiet as the ticket sales, but that will change come Friday.
Punters have bet on spec that Melbourne will be affected by Friday's Test even though they don't appear against Newcastle until Monday night. After opening up that handicap at 10 start to Newcastle, sustained support (including one bet of $8000) has seen that move into 8½. The Knights are playing well, and only have Kurt Gidley in the Aussie side on the bench, so we can understand why punters would want to be on them. However, there is no denying the class difference between the two sides, and if the Storm's Test players back up on Monday, then 8½ start will be nowhere near enough.
The Sharks have been backed around the country to beat the Cowboys on Saturday night, and with Matt Bowen out of the Cowboys side, and Jonathan Thurston involved in the Test, that is understandable. The Cowboys had a mini-run before falling over against Souths last week, but it would be fair to say that punters have not embraced them this season. We have them out to 1.60 (or -3½), but they are hard to sell, and look certain to drift even further. The Sharks are one side that handle the Townsville trip well having won 6 of their 10 appearances there, so they can get back into winning mode this week.
Formula One
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Ferrari's dominate betting in this week's Turkish GP.
Kimi Raikkonen is our 1.90 favourite to win, ahead of team-mate Felipe Massa at 3.00, then a healthy gap to Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) at 8.00. It has already got to the stage where nobody wants to bet against the Ferraris prior to qualifying, and if they draw well on the grid, then punters don't care what odds they take.
Massa won this race last year after qualifying quickest, and he defeated Raikkonen by a little over two seconds, with Hamilton ending up in fifth position. He did blow a tyre late in the race, but wasn't in contention at the time.
We have found betting to finish on the podium is increasing in popularity, and already this week there has been early support for Robert Kubica (2.50) and Heikki Kovalainen at 3.50. Both have been thereabouts so far this season, and with Hamilton's McLaren continuing to struggle, punters are prepared to 'risk' him as far as a podium finish is concerned.
Motorbikes
Valentino Rossi broke back into the winners circle after an 'out' of eight races in the Chinese MotoGP at the weekend, and has taken over as favourite to win the championship.
We pointed out last week Casey Stoner has been struggling on his Ducati recently, and again the Aussie had to be content with a minor placing, some 20 seconds behind Rossi. Sandwiched between that duo was Dani Pedrosa, but the story of the race was Jorge Lorenzo who wound up in fourth place.
Lorenzo parted company with his bike during practice on Friday, and eventually rode in the race with a broken ankle. It doesn't matter how many pain killers you have, there is no doubting the courage of these guys, and it is easy to see why Lorenzo is going to be a major force in the coming seasons.
The second placing by Pedrosa has given him the outright lead in the title, and he is 3.25 behind Rossi who is at 2.50. Rossi sits in third place, but is only nine points adrift of Rossi (81) and Lorenzo on 74 points. Stoner has dropped right off the pace, 25 points behind the leader, and will need to find some solutions as to why his machine has lost its speed. Another couple of losses and he will be out of the race, if he isn't already.
Golf
Young American star Anthony Kim announced his arrival on the PGA tour with an emphatic five shot victory over Ben Curtis in last weeks Wachovia Championship. It was a flawless performance from the 22yo who became the youngest winner on tour since Sergio Garcia won the Mercedes Championship back in 2002.
None of the big names lurking near the top of the leaderboard Sunday made a charge. Jim Furyk (7 under) and Phil Mickelson (5 under) shot 72s. Singh was out of it before he hit two tee shots in the water on No. 17, eventually chipping in for triple bogey. His 74 left him at 4 under. Robert Allenby's 66 put him at 9 under and alone in fourth place. But they were no match for Kim, who became the eighth 20-something golfer to win this year.
We mentioned last week there was good money for Furyk and Singh, who along with some specking for roughies Billy Mayfair and Ken Duke formed the base of our book. However it was the updated betting at the completion of each round where we found ourselves in trouble. We offered 31.00 Kim at the completion of the first round and were subsequently bombarded with bets to win in excess of $5,000 followed by another wager to win $10,000 at 26.00. The result was never in doubt after Kim surged to the top of the leaderboard at the completion of the third round after a classy six under 66.
This week we head to Florida for the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass and we have defending champion Phil Mickelson favourite at 12.00 .This is always rated as the fifth major and the class at the top of the betting is indicative of that. Recent winner Adam Scott is next at 15.00 with Singh at 19.00, Furyk and Harrington at 21.00 and Stewart Cink at 26.00. There has been plenty of interest as you would expect I an event of this quality and it is Hunter Mahan who has been best backed at 81.00, along with Sean O'Hair at 51.00 and the consistent Cink at 26.00. Surprisingly Phil Mickelson has attracted the least interest of those in the betting but as defending champion I'm sure he will find his admirers before tee off.
We are offering a host of betting options with Tournament Head to Heads,Group betting including Top Australian and all the 3 balls on a daily basis which should satisfy the thirst of most golfing punters. The tip is stick with the Aussies. We had three players finish in the top 8 last week and as Scott has win this event and is in good form we expect him to make a firm challenge this week as well.