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Welcome to the inaugural Bookies Bag, a look at the week in sport for Bet Buddha.


There looks to be a lot of good things in the Aussie rules this week, but I
think that the Saints are a real hope of serving it up to the Cats. Maybe
have a little bit on St Kilda to win, and load up on the handicap start. As
far as the league is concerned, Canberra return home to host the Tigers.
There is strong mail floating around that Robbie Farrah will be out of the
Tigers side. If that is the case, then it should be easy pickings for the
Raiders. As always, good punting.

Rugby League
 
Lasseters opened a market this week on who will be the NSW State of Origin
half back, and hasn't it created some interest!
 
Many were shocked that we came up with Brisbane's Peter Wallace as favourite
at 3.25, but few could argue he has been the form player of 2008. The NSW
selectors have indicated that they prefer going for youth, and remember what
happened last year when they named Jarrod Mullen from left field ! Naturally
a drop off in form or an injury can put a player out of the race, and with
Brisbane now without Darren Lockyer for a few weeks, it will be interesting
to see weather Wallace can take it to another level, or will the form of the
Broncos suffer? In any case, it looks like several punters agree with our
ranking as Wallace has been backed into 3.00, led up by a bet of $800. In
keeping with the theory that it could be a youngster, Canberra's Todd Carney
and Mitchell Pearce from the Roosters have also been targeted. Carney has
been a quite achiever down in the nations capital, and is now 9.00 after
opening at 11.00, while Pearce has been the biggest firmer in betting, now
13.00 after opening at 41.00. On reflection, the 41.00 was way too high as
the combination of Pearce and Braith Anasta has been firing on all cylinders
for the Roosters, and perhaps selectors might see the benefit in going into
game one with the same pairing. Kurt Gidley (9.00) is another who has
attracted support, but we would expect Gidley to remain a bench player, that
seems to be where he has the most impact. The plot thickened this week when
Robbie Farah was named as the Tigers half back for this weekend, so maybe he
is more hope than the 16.00 he is trading at? It certainly has created a lot
of interest, and in the first two days of betting, only Jamie Soward (101)
has failed to draw a bet.

Last week was a strange week as only five favourites won, but there was
plenty for two of the outsiders who saluted. Cronulla came in to start at
2.10 after opening at 2.40, and Penrith were backed from an isolated 2.75
into 2.25 when victorious over the Tigers on Monday night. It is worth
pointing out that the bulk of the activity on that game came for Penrith
after Robbie Farrah was ruled out of the Tigers side, and even though we
tried to have them as a winner, we didn't miss the avalanche of money A
couple of late bets for the Tigers (including one of $9000 at -3½) did help,
but it was a losing event. Cronulla attracted some big bets including one of
$6000 at 2.30, and although it is still early days, the Sharks look to be a
major threat this season.
 
The upcoming round is intriguing, with injuries coming into play on most
games. Darren Lockyer is out of the Brisbane side, hence the reason they are
only 1.72 against the Knights. Newcastle also have their share of injury
woes, but an upset looms here. Penrith had a torrid match on Monday night,
but they did come away with a big victory, so maybe the Panthers are
returning to form. We hope so anyway as we are giving them a good chance of
getting over the Roosters on Saturday night. The 1.70 for a Roosters win
appealed to a couple of early bettors (one with $4000), but the Roosters
look vulnerable with Minichello and Mason missing.


Australian Rules

Melbourne came away from Geelong with another loss last Sunday, but not
before giving those who took the short odds for the Cats a serious fright.
The Demons served it right up to Geelong before petering out in the last
quarter to go down by 5 goals. That meant that those who jumped in early and
took the massive start for Melbourne got the cash, but that was the way we
wanted it in the finish. Fortunately once the handicap was into -72½ we
found there was a lot of interest in Geelong, including bets of $8000 and
three of $4000, and realistically they were never a chance to cover. Taking
short odds takes nerves of steel, and one Victorian punter would have well
and truly tested out those nerves after placing $30,000 on Geelong at 1.04.
He had to go through three harrowing quarters before Geelong finally shook
Melbourne off, all to win $1200!

Six of the eight favourites won last week, but we did some serious damage on
one of the outsiders that won. Sydney were backed for a stack, and we were
happy to take the money in as we though Brisbane would win. The Swans firmed
from 2.15 into 1.97, with one Melbourne punter investing $16,000 at 2.05.
That same person had a terrific Saturday night as he also had $18,000 on
Essendon conceding 6½ points start to Carlton. That game was another that
could have gone either way, but the Blues stopped to a walk in the last
quarter.

Geelong have firmed to 2.50 for the flag, and 75% of the bets taken this
week have been for the Cats. Hawthorn are clear second elects now at 6.00,
while Melbourne dominate wooden spoon betting at 1.55, and so they should!
Melbourne are 3.50 outsiders against the Kangaroos this week, but they have
an appointment against Carlton the following week and that may well decide
who wins the spoon, even this early in the season.

This week's round is dominated by short priced favourites, with most playing
at home. 'Shortie's is a rarity in this day and age, and we will be looking
to get a couple of them beaten.  The Western Bulldogs will be without Scot
West, and that makes them a little risk in our opinion. We did open the
Bulldogs at 1.71, but several bets (including one of $5500) saw that price
cut to 1.67. St Kilda were being talked about as a flag possibility before
last weeks fade out against the Bulldogs, now they are out to 11.00 to win
the premiership, and a staggering 3.85 to beat Geelong. The game is at
Telstra, a ground where both play well, and while the Cats are undefeated,
we will be taking them on to win the game, and also at -24½ points start.

Adelaide are coming off an epic battle with Port last week, and have to
travel to Tasmania to play Hawthorn. The Hawks have gathered plenty of
scalps at Aurora Stadium over the past few seasons, and this will be another
one. The 1.43 might seem short, but they play the ground so well it is hard
to see them being beaten.


Rugby

Week 8 of the Super 14s Competition saw the punters get the upper hand with
5 favourites saluting and a couple of really good 'goes' getting to the
wire.  The round kicked off on Friday evening in Dunedin with the
Highlanders taking on the Lions, with all the money being for the home team,
1.36 into 1.33, and the line firming from a flat 8 into 9.  Our last wager
was 10,000 from a local client just prior to kick-off and with the
Highlanders scoring in the last 3 minutes it turned into a poor result.
That game was followed by the Brumbies hosting the Chiefs in Canberra with
the Brumbies 1.85 favourites and the Chiefs at 2.00.  We were keen to take
on the Brumbies and at 1.85 and were the best odds on the planet but
unfortunately our punters didn't see it that way. It was like going to the
dentist and extracting teeth to get anything out of the home team.  The
result still fell our way with the Chiefs proving too strong 42-28, and what
should have been a good result turned into just an average one for Lasseters
Sportsbook.  The final game on Friday evening saw the Force host the Bulls
at Subiaco oval in Perth. The Force were a firm favourite at $1.60 while the
Bulls had their admirers at $2.35. The Force conceded 4 points on this game
where there was an even spread of money for both teams.

The Saturday games proved a more even betting affair with the Hurricanes
hosting the Sharks in Wellington, the Warratahs hosting the Blues in Sydney,
and the Cheetahs hosting the Reds at Bloemfontein in South Africa. The first
game proved to be a rip-snorter in the end, with the Hurricanes drawing 13
all with the Sharks. A try to the Hurricanes being denied in the closing
seconds of the game. The Hurricanes were $1.65 into $1.62 with that handicap
solid at 3 ½, including two separate wagers of $5000 from a couple of
clients in the UK, so that try not being allowed  proved to be a windfall.

The Waratahs then hosted the Blues at Sydney Football Stadium, with the
Blues favoured at $1.80. It was an important clash for both sides with a lot
of pressure on the Waratahs given the resignation of Ewan McKenzie for next
season. The Waratahs proved too solid for a disappointing Blues outfit, who
lost Joe Rocacoco with a broken wrist and are certainly missing the
attacking flair of Isa Nacewa at full back.

The final game saw the Cheetahs hosting the Reds in South Africa, and they
proved far too good, winning 29-14 and landing some very heavy wagers,
backed from $1.85 into $1.70. Our last two wagers were $4000 and $6000 at
$1.75 from a local client and that rounded up what proved to be a
disappointing week for the bag men.

This week's games are not as tight as last week, with many favourites being
short odds on, and looking to be hard to beat. The round kicks off with the
Highlanders hosting the Sharks in Durban, with the Sharks $1.35 and must
concede 8.0 points start. That game is also followed on Saturday with the
Crusaders hosting the Lions in Christchurch. The Crusaders are $1.04 and the
Lions $12, and are receiving 24 ½ points. Already the Crusaders have been 23
½ points into 24 ½ points, which includes a wager of $5000 at the opening of
betting.

That game on Saturday night is followed by the Blues hosting the Brumbies in
Auckland, with the Blues at $1.30 and conceding 9 ½ points to the Brumbies.
That game to this point has attracted little attention.

We then head back over to the mainland, where the Western Force host NSW
Waratahs in a local derby. Western Force are $1.80 while the Waratahs are
$2.05 and all the early money is for the visitors. This will prove an
entertaining game, and if the Waratahs follow the pattern set last week and
spread the ball wide we should see plenty of tries scored.

We then head to South Africa late on Saturday night, where the Stormers host
the Cheetahs, and the Bulls host the Hurricanes. The Stormers have been
installed $1.20 and 11 ½ point favourites, while the Cheetahs, coming off a
win over the Reds last week, and with some good form in Capetown, will look
to put back-to-back wins together. To this point, all the early money has
been to the Stormers, including one $10,000 wager at $1.25.

The Bulls then host the Hurricanes in Pretoria and are $1.64 favourites and
must concede 4 points to the Hurricanes. The Bulls season is over, and this
is a must-win game for the Hurricanes, however the Bulls are now starting to
adopt the new IRV rules, and at home should prove too good for the
Hurricanes.

Best of luck for all your betting, and remember when you Bet with Buddha, you Bet to Win!