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Rugby League
State of Origin has so often thrown up unexpected results, and we saw another one this week when New South Wales beat Queensland by eight points.
There was a lot of conjecture about the Queensland side and the selectors had convinced most punters that they had the right mix to do the job, and that resulted in the Maroons going into game one carrying the bulk of the money. After opening at 1.80 three weeks ago, betting closed with Queensland at 1.68 and the Blues at 2.28. The last bet on the game being $8000 on the Queenslanders.
That victory has opened the series up, with NSW now into 1.40 to win the series (from 2.40), while QLD have blown out to 2.90 from 1.57. The Maroons couldn't possibly play any worse than they did this week, and will enter game two as an odds on favourite, so we may well see a decider back in Sydney.
Punters may have come out on the wrong side of the ledger after Origin One, but they had plenty to play with after last weekend's round. Only one favourite was beaten (the Roosters), and there was money to say that they could beat the Eels. The horror results for the round were the wins by Manly, Cronulla, Penrith and Wests Tigers.
There was any amount of money to say that Manly would belt the Cowboys, and that handicap moved from -10 into -13½ at game time. It was impossible to get anything out of the Cowboys, but all looked to be going nicely during most of the first half as the North Queenslanders held Manly scoreless. Just when we thought this was one game that was going our way, the floodgates opened and the Cowboys (and bookies) were again on the receiving end of a hiding.
The Warriors have always been pretty ordinary on the road, and Penrith are not a side to be trusted when favourites, but punters were right on the mark again on Sunday. The Panthers are capable of scoring a lot of points (and conceding just as many) but they were right on top of their game when they dished out similar treatment to the Warriors. Several big bets (one of $10,000 and two of $5000) were placed on Penrith to win at 1.57, and there was just as much again for them to cover a four point spread. All of a sudden the boys from the foot of the mountains look like they can play, and have snuck right up the betting board to be 26.00 to win the premiership after being second elect to win the wooden spoon a month ago.
Only five games will be played this weekend, and there are a couple of intriguing battles looming. The game of the round will see Wests Tigers host the Titans at Leichhardt, and the Tigers have opened as four point favourites to beat the Gold Coast. The Tigers have a full squad back on the paddock, but punters continue to underestimate the Gold Coast, so we will be looking for them to chalk up another victory. Within minutes of opening the games on Thursday, the Bulldogs were backed from 2.10 into 2.05 to beat Cronulla on Monday night. That is understandable as the Doggies have Hazem El Masri back, and the Sharks are a side that bookies always have trouble laying, when they win, it is always by a narrow margin. The Monday night games are the biggest betting games of the round, and the early signs are there that perhaps there will be little in the betting by the time Monday evening comes around.
Australian Rules
We were well and truly taken to the cleaners on the weekend with all eight favourites winning in the AFL, and things didn't get much better when the rugby league results (six favourites from the eight games) were thrown in as well.
One of the bigger moves for the year so far saw the Brisbane Lions backed from slight outsiders (1.95) into a shortish 1.55 to defeat Carlton. Some of the bigger bets included $17,000 at 1.75 and $9300 at the opening 1.93, and the only real bite that we received for Carlton was $11,000 with 10½ points start. The only consolation was that we were out of our misery early as Brisbane jumped straight to the front and never looked in danger.
We were pretty keen on the chances of Essendon getting under the handicap of 36 points against the Swans, and for the first 2½ quarters, all was looking good. There was plenty to say that the Swans would cover the spread, including bets of $12,000 and $7000, and we were again left lamenting when Sydney went on a 13 goal spree to win easily after only leading by 17 points early in the third stanza.
That round is behind us now, and it would be fair to say punters have plenty of ammo (most of it ours!) coming into this weekend. There are a host of short priced favourites again, and early signs are that they will all be heading in the same direction, downwards!
Geelong was lucky to get away with a victory against Collingwood in last year's finals series, but the Cats will go into Friday night's clash as very warm public elects. After opening at 1.25, we were forced into cutting the price to 1.20, and that was even prior to any serious multi action for the round. Essendon has hit a large wall, and while it may be hard to believe, Richmond has been backed for plenty to beat the Bombers on Saturday night. After opening at 1.40, the Tigers were into 1.33 after 48 hours of trading, and several four figure bets (one of $4000) moved the handicap a full two points from the opening mark of -18½.
As far as premiership betting is concerned, there is now a strong belief that Hawthorn is capable of winning the flag this year. We hadn't really seen any money for the Hawks, just cutting their price each week as they went on their winning way, but leading into last weekend we did take a bet of $6000 for Hawthorn at 3.80, and the support has continued this week at 3.50. Geelong remain top pick at 2.15, while the Bulldogs are currently at 11.00, but as is so often the case with the Bulldogs, they are yet to convince punters they are the 'real deal'.
Formula One
One of the highlights of the Formula One calendar each year is the race held in Monaco, and Kimi Raikkonen goes into this weekend's race in Monte Carlo as our 2.60 favourite.
The tight street circuit is only 3.3k's in circumference, and that makes it a distinct advantage to draw on the front row of the grid. Fernando Alonso won this race last year after qualifying the fastest, and it was interesting to note that the first four over the line, Alonso, Lewis Hamilton, Felipe Massa and Giancarlo Fisichella lined up in those exact positions on the starting grid.
It is virtually impossible to pass around Monte Carlo, and that is why we rarely see any interest in drivers outside of the first four or five in the market. While Raikkonen is favourite to win, Massa showed with his last start win in Turkey that he is more than capable of keeping up with his Ferrari team-mate, and we have noticed some support for Massa at 3.00, but there has been little interest in Lewis Hamilton who is a close third pick at 3.80. Hamilton has had mixed fortunes this season, but showed with his second in Istanbul that a win may not be too far away.
The only other driver to attract any early betting has been Heikki Kovalainen (21.00 into 15.00), but the Finn hasn't really shown the necessary speed so far to suggest that he could arrest pole position away from either of the Ferraris.
Motorbikes
Valentino Rossi has returned to his very best form, and the popular Italian went into last weekend's French MotoGP as favourite at 2.90, and emerged as victor again.
While Rossi was favourite, he went around as a significant winner for us as there was plenty of support for Dani Pedrosa (3.25), Casey Stoner (4.25) and Chris Vermeulen, who had been backed from 34.00 into 13.00. The logic behind that move probably had something to do with bad weather predications, and those conditions have proven to be a barrier to Rossi in the past.
The rain kept away, and after an early tussle, Rossi proved to be far too good, winning by nearly five seconds from Jorge Lorenzo and Colin Edwards. The effort by Lorenzo was quite astounding as he is still suffering from badly injured ankles, and will be a force in any race coming up.
Lorenzo was unwanted by punters (7.00 out to 21.00), due to his injuries, but he does loom as the one to beat in the future. Pedrosa had every possible chance before winding up in fourth position, but the big story from the race was the failure of Casey Stoner. The Aussie qualified third fastest, but had continual mechanical problems, and eventually wound up in 16th place. It is virtually impossible now for Stoner to hold on to his title crown, and has blown out to 11.00, with Rossi the favourite at 1.80.
Rugby Union
The Super 14s have reached the semi final stage after one of the most exciting and closest fought seasons in recent memory. The make up of the final four was not known until the result of the final game where the Sharks proved too good for the visiting Chiefs and edged out an unlucky Stormers unit.
Punters were once again on the mark with six of the seven favourites winning and covering the handicap. The only exception being title favourites, the Crusaders, who suffered a 14-26 loss to a determined Highlanders team. It must be of some concern to Robbie Deans that his formidable team is playing below par at the business end of the season. A loss to the Highlanders and Chiefs and less than convincing wins over the Reds, Sharks and Blues over the last five weeks indicates a team down on confidence.
Last week punters were keen to take the 1.80 the Blues against the Hurricanes, the 1.75 the Force against the Brumbies and give the 11½ the Crusaders in the first three games of the weekend. We were on our heels early and got out on the Highlanders at which point we reassessed our position on the remaining games. We were happy to give the 5½ to the Reds, concede the 8½ to the Stormers and dodge the last two games which looked as if they could be blow outs if results in the previous games went according to form.
While the Reds, Cheetahs and Chiefs all proved hard to lay we were lucky to get some money out of the Lions receiving 8½ to the Stormers, which was not our intention. The Stormers were one try away from a bonus point which would have given them a semi finals start and they can consider themselves unlucky as they have been one of the form teams of the comp in the second half of the season.
Now down to the nitty gritty. The Crusaders and Waratahs have been two of the most consistent teams this season with the Waratah’s not having dropped a game at home. For that reason it will make it tough for this week's visitors as the Hurricanes travel to Christchurch without Rodney So'oialo and the Sharks to Sydney, where they received a 15 point drubbing in week 11.
There is some similarity in the betting with the Crusaders 1.42 and conceding 7½ points and the Waratahs 1.47 and conceding 6½ points. Punters are already getting behind the Crusaders with two separate $3,000 wagers conceding the start, and once it is confirmed the Hurricanes skipper is a non starter I suspect that start to shorten in a point. On the other hand punters appear willing to risk the Waratahs against last year's finalists with early money for the visitors. I suspect there will still be money for the Waratahs nearing kick off as the Sharks seldom perform well in the Harbour City.
Golf
Ryudji Imada found himself in a play-off for the second successive year in the AT &T Classic at Sugarloaf.
Last year it was Zach Johnson, and after finding his ball in the rough, eerily not too far away from where he would end up Sunday Imada went for the green and landed in the water, costing him the tournament. He had to live with that memory for a year, haunted by the thought that his breakthrough PGA TOUR win had slipped through his fingers. Would he ever get that close again?
"This course owed me one," Imada has said repeatedly this week. The payoff came Sunday, with Imada finally getting his win at TPC Sugarloaf. He certainly was deserving, no one had fewer putts per round and in the middle two rounds, and he missed just five of 36 greens in regulation. However, this year the luck was with him and not Kenny Perry, who must have wondered Sunday night why his second shot that was headed anywhere but toward the water on the par-5 18th actually ended up getting wet, costing him a chance to win and perhaps even that much-coveted spot on this year's yet-to-be-determined US Ryder Cup team.
It was mentioned last week that betting on this event had been a little slow, save for some specking for Jonathon Byrd, Nicolas Thompson and Jason Day. Byrd had a good tournament and finished fourth, two shots behind the play-off pair and a shot adrift of Camillo Villegas. He looked a likely winner as he led at 12 under par at the completion of the second round, but no doubt punters would be happy with his top five finish. Our tip Briny Baird once again had a solid event, finishing in a tie for eleventh, and should be followed in similar type events.
This week we head to Texas for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. The defending champion is Rory Sabbatini and he enters this event as a 31.00 chance behind favourite Phil Mickelson at 10.00, Jim Furyk at 13.00, young gun Anthony Kim at 21.00 with the unlucky Kenny Perry and Aussie Geoff Ogilvy at 26.00.
Once again punters have shied away from the top of the betting and looked to some roughies to get the job done. Brian Gay at 101.00, Tim Petrovic at 126.00, Jason Day at 151.00 and Mark Brooks at 661.00 have all been solid in the betting and have been backed to win over $25,000 with Lasseters. Sorry punters but I have to ask why? We are seldom in the habit of standing outsiders at these odds but with this group we will be prepared to make an exception. Mickelson and Furyk both have form from Sugarloaf but perhaps the most ironic point is that Kenny Perry, currently the world's most unlucky golfer, has the best recent credentials here. Can he get himself up after last week's disappointment?