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Here’s a look at where all the money is headed going into the Anzac Day long weekend for all BetBuddha followers courtesy of Lasseters Sportsbook.
Australian Rules
While six favourites won during round five of the AFL, we managed to stumble out with a small profit courtesy of another loss by Collingwood.
For the second week in a row the Magpies went over when short odds (1.60) and that killed off practically all of the major multis for the weekend. The win by the Kangaroos wasn't totally unexpected however as we did take plenty of money for them early in the week, including $8000 at 2.30 and $10,000 with 9½ points start. Every year it seems as though most punters just put the pen through the Kangaroos each week, and that suits us fine! This won't be the last time they deliver a KO blow to a favourite; they are a much better side than most think.
Melbourne had a few fans that thought they could get within 21 points of Carlton, but while they momentarily hit the front in the second quarter, the end result saw them suffer their fifth successive defeat. Carlton isn't the sort of side that you would want to pin too much faith in at 1.25, but Melbourne are woeful, so we weren't too upset when two punters plonked a total of $21,000 on the Demons with the handicap. One of those punters bounced back very quickly however as he also placed $8000 on Richmond with 18 points start against the Bulldogs (1.93), so when the Tigers drew with the Bulldogs, he got back most of the deficit from the previous game.
The market we opened last week on when (or if) Melbourne win in season 2008 certainly created a lot of interest. We did get some money fro them to win last week against Carlton (4.25), and a little bit of money in most of the upcoming rounds, but the bulk of what we took was for the Demons to go through without scoring a victory (11.00 into 9.00). It seems as though most think the losses will continue to come, and this week that option is now into 4.00. The news doesn't get any better for Demons fans as they travel north to take on Brisbane and will be without the inspirational David Neitz. Brisbane was valiant in defeat against Hawthorn last week. It was a goal for goal shootout, and if Brisbane can kick anything close to a similar total (118), then Melbourne is going to have awful trouble getting within the 44½ points start we have given them.
Our Aussie Rules analyst rates Carlton very highly to beat the Crows on Saturday, so we will be trying to 'stand' Adelaide in this game. The signs are there that this will be fairly easy to do as one of the first bets for the week was $5000 on Adelaide at 1.74. We are yet to be convinced Adelaide is a force, especially away from home, and while Carlton has a habit of conceding big scores, they are also more than capable of kicking winning totals.
Following on with the same theme, our stats man says that the Kangaroos can beat the Swans on Sunday at the Dome, so we will be looking for the Roos to do us another favour. The Kangaroos always play well at the Dome, the quick surface suits their high scoring game plan, and of course that is one area that the Swans often lack in. The last time (and only) time this pair played at Telstra was during last season, and the Roos won 111-95. The Swans have opened at 1.85, but in the first 24 hours of trading we failed to get a bite, so they look certain to drift.
Rugby League
Poor old South Sydney has been hogging the headlines as their winless streak continues, and the odds are short that they will still be maidens after the weekend.
The Rabbitohs head to Brisbane as 5.00 outsiders, and while the Broncos have their share of worries with injuries, only a supreme optimist would suggest that Souths will break their duck. We have re-opened our market on when (or if) Souths win their first game, with round eight (against the Cowboys) the favourite way for their first win. That is the weekend after next, and is 3.00, while that may seem grossly under the odds, it is in Sydney and the Test players will be out. We still don't believe that Souths will fail to win a game, and that is why they are 26.00 to 'win' that option, but having said that, they would need to be chalking up a win in the next five or six rounds as they face a forlorn task nearing the end of the season.
While Souths face an uphill battle this week, there are a few who think that they can get within a 14 point handicap. One league punter who is normally close to the mark has had a total of $8000 on Souths with the start prompting speculation that Darren Lockyer my still be out of the Broncos side, but he has since been confirmed as a starter.
Manly has met with heavy support to beat the Bulldogs on Saturday night. Again the money came from league enthusiasts who rarely get it wrong, and one placed $8000 on the Sea Eagles at 1.51, while two others took the -6 Manly to the tune of $5000 each. We were more than happy to take the Sea Eagles on here as we are yet to be convinced they are the same team as last year, and they will be missing Steve Menzies. It is rare to see money come for league sides on Thursday, so perhaps there is a chance one of the big Bulldogs names is out?
Rugby Union
Week 10 of the Super 14s kicked off on the Friday with a couple of surprise results.
The Chiefs broke the Crusaders unbeaten run for the season with an 18-5 demolition in Hamilton then the Reds all but ended the Force's semi-final aspirations with a comprehensive 29-12 victory at Suncorp. We thought both favourites were a risk but the Crusaders were almost impossible to lay with the Chiefs firming from 3.00 onto 2.70 and the start 6½ into 5½. We chased as hard as we could to lay the visitors and while we avoided what would have been a poor result for most bookmaking firms it was still not the result we hoped for.
We found the Force a little easier to lay but still had to give a flat 4 point start to get them in. We hit the hay with a reasonable lead but it was tough work and shows you how well informed punters of today really are.
On the Saturday favourites and punters hit back strongly with three of the four all winning and covering the start, with the only respite coming from the Brumbies win 27-21 over the Sharks. That being said the Brumbies had their admirers with our first wager being $5,000 from a Sydney client at the opening odds of 2.05. Whatever lead we had was given back and it’s hard to imagine the bagmen faring well given the fluctuations in the betting ring.
This week we have another interesting round of matches and kicks off on Anzac Day with the Crusaders hosting the Blues in Christchurch. These are always tight and fiercely contested matches and I see this as no different with the Blues desperate for a win to stay in semi final contention. The Crusaders are 1.30 and are conceding 9½ points while the Blues are 3.60 and good value at that.
We head to the mainland then as the Brumbies host the Lions in Canberra. The Brumbies are a prohibited 1.10 and must concede 15½ points but all the early indicators are that the punting public will be happy to take that as the home team stays in semi-final touch.
The Saturday games look a little lop sided on paper as the Chiefs and Stormers both give 13½ points to their respective opponents the Reds and Highlanders. The Hurricanes are 1.48 and must give six points to the Cheetahs who are 2.70.
The remaining game is a blockbuster as the Waratahs host the Sharks in Sydney with the 'Tahs' 1.66 favourites and conceding 3½ points to the visitors who are 2.25. This game already has an even spread of money so it's a tough call to see who we'll be barracking for by kick off.
No doubt we will be looking for a result in one of the other games and it may well come in the disguise of the Highlanders who have a great record against the Stormers who are looking a little worse for wear after some torrid games in recent weeks while the Cheetahs are also capable of a result at home.
Betting in these games has been a little slow but I'm confident we will have a definite position by kick off and it will prove a 'stormy' night if the lads from Cape Town cover the handicap.
Formula One
This week the Formula One action moves to Spain, and Ferrari looks set to dominate again.
Kimi Raikkonen is favourite at 2.50, but close behind him is team-mate Felipe Massa at 3.25. Massa showed last time out in Bahrain he is also going to be a force to be reckoned with.
Massa also won the Spanish GP last year from Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso after he was the quickest qualifier. In that particular race Raikkonen had to retire very early on, but he did have car troubles in the early part of last season.
Punters are only interested in the Ferrari pair, with Lewis Hamilton already drifting from 4.00 out to 4.50. There has been a little bit of interest shown in Nick Heidfeld to finish on the podium at 4.00, which is understandable given he currently sits in second place on the championship table.
Golf
In what seems a rarity these days, Boo Weekley successfully defended his Verizon Heritage title he won by a shot over Ernie Els last year.
While last year he needed chip-ins on the 71st and 72nd holes to complete the task, this year, after taking a three shot lead into the final round, he was never seriously challenged.
It was an amazing feat from the man named after Yogi Bear's cartoon sidekick, Boo Boo. He has teed up twice at Hilton Head for two wins and joins greats in Davis Love and Payne Stewart as back to back winners here.
And although there were tough competitors in the likes of Jim Furyk and Aaron Baddeley breathing down his neck, Weekley went to his picnic basket and found his 'cool' to hold off Baddeley and Anthony Kim by three shots.
Kim was the man most likely to put pressure on Weekley however a bogey at the ninth hole put pay to his chances, and he never really threatened again. It was a popular win for the native of Florida and if his recent form is any indication it won't be his last for the season.
This week we head to Texas for the Byron Nelson Championship, and as things are big in Texas so is the build up for Trevor Immelman, playing his first event as the 2008 Masters champion. Immelman was runner-up to Scott Verplank last year and if he holds his Masters form should prove hard to beat.
Australian Adam Scott heads the betting at 13.00 from Immelman at 17.00, Luke Donald and Rory Sabbatini both 19.00, Sergio Garcia at 26.00, then Chad Campbell, Sean O'Hair and Justin Leonard all at 29.00. This has been one of the best betting events in recent times with players as diverse as Todd Hamilton at 501.00 to Scott at 13.00, all well backed. So numerous have the players that we have laid that it would take too much space to list them all but perhaps the two best backed have been Campbell at 29.00 now into 26.00 and Ian Poulter, 41.00 into 34.00, both backed to win in excess of $50,000. It certainly will add a little spice to the tournament as we attempt to get as many as 20 players beaten.
As an added incentive we have laid Adam Scott in his head-to-head with Immelman, 1.83 into 1.69 and on the back of several large wagers including $5,000 from a rival bookmaking firm. Lets hope the Masters champ holds his form from ten days ago when he gave Scott a golfing lesson at Augusta.