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Australian Rules
It was a very strange weekend of betting on the AFL last week when we won on some games we didn't expect to, and lost on those we would normally win on.
In all, five of the eight favourites won, but there were some rather strange betting fluctuations on several matches. Every outsider was backed, and the win by the Kangaroos over Hawthorn was a loss for Lasseters, and that was a shock. The Roos were backed from 5.50 into 4.50 (two bets of $2000 at 5.50), but the serious money (including one bet of $10,000) was placed on the Roos with 27 points-start. The handicap on this match moved in from 33 points to close at 26, so it was indeed a big move.
We made mention last week of the early money for the Crows. Well that didn't stop, and after giving 3.60 early on the Monday, the last bet we took for Adelaide was $7000 at 2.15! Adelaide looked in control for the first three quarters, but one of the main reasons we initially were happy to risk them was because they had played in that torrid encounter against Hawthorn the week before, and fatigue was always going to a problem. That is how it all panned out as they simply ran out of legs in the last quarter.
In the Fremantle v St Kilda game we had two different favourites at various stages, but it was the Dockers who went in as public elects at 1.70, and naturally they lost again! This game was turned on its head late on Thursday afternoon when 'they' said that St Kilda was going to drop some big names. Fremantle quickly firmed from 2.00 outsiders into 1.60 after the sides were named (largest bet $15,000 at 1.70), but on game day, some punters saw value in the 2.35 for the Saints, and the got back into 2.20. It wasn't a huge betting game (after all, both sides have plenty of convictions), but it was intriguing seeing the way punters reacted to the 'leaks' of information.
There will only be six games on this week, with the remaining two the week after. The rumour mill was in action again on Tuesday when there was a good push for Richmond (we did not want to get involved, but took a $5000 bet off a well informed punter), with the Tigers backed at 1.95 and 1.90, which of course meant there may be somebody missing for Carlton. All bookmakers suspended the game, and then the lead news story on Wednesday was that Chris Judd was in doubt, and there was also some chance Brendan Fevola may be out. If either fails to play, then Carlton will go around at much better odds (2.25), but if both are to miss, then they could start any old price. We won't be getting overly involved until it is confirmed one way or the other.
Night games at Carrara have been low scoring affairs, and that is one of the reasons why we think St Kilda have a chance against the Roos on Saturday night, but punters don't agree. After opening at 1.65, the first $10,000 on the game was all for the Roos, and that price was cut into 1.60, with the Saints friendless at 2.35. It looks like the gap may widen even further, but if Justin Koschitzke plays for St Kilda, then they are in with a real chance.
Geelong have gone up another gear, and they are into 2.25 to win the flag, and Gary Ablett is 1.80 to win the Brownlow Medal. Ablett has had a great season, and while many may have thought that we have never had an odds on favourite so early in the season, you only have to look back to season 2000 to find the last. Carlton's Anthony Koutifides was 1.90 after round 13 that year, and of course he failed to win! While Ablett leads all the awards, there are others who have also had terrific starts to the season, and I can't see any value in the 1.80. Adam Cooney (Bulldogs) has been among the best players for most of their games and that is why he is second pick at 4.25, and the same applies to most of those in the betting behind the top two. The one player that has flown under the radar is Sydney's Brett Kirk, now into 15.00, and he has been the standout player for the Swans this year.
Rugby League
The State of Origin teams have been picked for the series decider in Sydney next week, and that has seen the Queensland side shorten up in the betting.
Prior to injuries to Greg Bird and Mark Gasnier, we had the home side at 2.10 and Qld at 1.70, but with the Blues forced to make changes, we have cut the Qld price to 1.65, with the Blues out to 2.25. There has been a lot of talk about the poor record of the Maroons at ANZ Stadium, but another slant on it is that they did win there last year, and although they played poorly in game one this year, they only finished eight points in arrears. The betting looks about right, an argument can be put up for either side, so we will let the punters back whatever they want.
This week we have the problem of trying to work out how sides will perform without their Origin stars, but punters have let their intentions be known. We opened Parramatta up as 18½ point favourites over Melbourne Storm, and within minutes that line had been crunched into 20½. Close to $20,000 was placed on the Eels by a handful of league followers, but while the Storm will be without nine players on Sunday, Parramatta are one side who have several �priors� when short priced favourites.
A similar moved came in the Manly/Newcastle game with bets totalling nearly $14,000 coming for the Sea Eagles conceding 10½ points start to the Knights. Only one point separated the pair (Newcastle won 13-12) back in March, but Newcastle will be without Gidley, Cross and Buderus. Manly lose a lot of firepower with Brett Stewart also on Origin duty, and the Knights still look outstanding value.
Rugby Union
There were no surprises in last week’s Internationals as the All Blacks emerged 44-12 victors over England and South Africa proved too strong for a determined Italy 26-0, in appalling conditions at Newlands.
The All Blacks opened 1.03 and were conceding 23½ points to England who were 13.00. Oddly, despite a poor showing and a lucky 17 point loss the week before punters were still keen to take the 23½ start England, including one $4,000 wager from a UK client. Not much for them to win, however, the handicap price had firmed into 1.88 by kick-off and it was the All Blacks who we were barracking for. Now thats a poor position to be in!
The drubbing was all the more meritorious as the All Blacks lost McCaw and Williams early in the game but unearthed two new talents in Adam Thomson and Richard Kahui who both look as though they will be All Blacks for many years to come. McCaw and Williams appear as though they will miss at least one Tri Nations match which may make the assignment a little easier for the Wallabies and Springboks. The English added nothing to the game as a spectacle and Jonathan Kaplan made matters worse with a liberal use of the whistle. I think we had a better result than those who attended the game.
Well if you thought the All Blacks game was boring you would feel for those who paid to attend the South Africa v Italy borefest in Cape Town. Yes the weather was poor and the Springboks showed little flare. Betting opened with the �Boks at 1.01 And Italy 21.00 and the handicap 42½ however punters were all over Italy receiving the points. Our first wager was $3,000 from a rival bookmaking form and then another $5,000 from a shrewd client fro the West. The start had firmed into 40½ by kick-off and although we were expecting some rain the conditions proved to be far worse than anticipated. Italy were brave but the �Boks were happy to rely on the boot of Francois Steyn and not encourage any flare.
This week we have two Internationals with the Wallabies hosting France in Sydney and Argentina play Italy in Buenos Aires. There is no change to the Wallaby squad while France has fielded an under strength team. The hosts are 1.08 and France 8.00 in early markets and while the handicap has not been set, it would be fair to suggest that 18½ would be the mark. The weather should be good this week so I suspect most of the money will arrive for the hosts, especially with an extra couple of weeks guidance under Robbie Deans.
Golf
Stewart Cink won his first PGA event in four years when he held off a surging Tommy Armour and defending champion Hunter Mahan by a shot, to take out the 2008 Travellers Championship, his fifth career title.
Cink has held the reputation in recent times as a good golfer who just can�t finish off a tournament. His record states that he had won just one event during his career where he led into the final round from nine attempts. However, never before had he been in such consistent form. Six top 10 finishes from his previous 14 starts, including a tie for third at the Masters and a tie for fourteenth at last week's US Open gave every indication a win was just around the corner. Yet the stigma was still there. No wins since the NEC Invitational in 2004 and plenty of opportunities in the meantime. This time the man from the South got the job done. His up and down on the 72nd hole after his approach went through the green meant he had moved from a choker to a closer.
We mentioned last week that this event had been one of the better betting affairs in recent times probably more than anything else due to the withdrawal of Tiger Woods for the remainder of season 2008. Cink shared the top line of betting with Vijay Singh at 16.00, Hunter Mahan and Kenny Perry both well supported at 17.00, while Justin Rose 21.00 and Heath Slocum 26.00 also drawing support. It may well have been a great betting event having laid a multiple of competitors however with Cink winning and the likes of Mahan, Slocum and Singh all finishing in the top five it proved to be a poor result. The punting public certainly do their homework these days with always at least one of the players well supported in the race for the title and although veteran Tommy Armour would have provided us with a great result, the Gods once again conspired against us.
This week we head to Michigan for the Buick Open at Warwick Hills. Unheralded Brian Bateman captured his maiden title there last year but indifferent form has him a 201.00 chance to defend. Jim Furyk heads the betting at 11.00 from a resurgent Kenny Perry at 13.00 and Justin Leonard at 16.00, Heath Slocum at 21.00 and Brandt Snedeker at 26.00. Betting has been a little stifled to this point. Scott Verplank at 29.00 and a host of 51.00 chances including Lucas Glover, Tom Pernice, Nick O�Hern and Rocco Mediate have attracted the most attention, all backed to win over $20,000. Furyk has form at Warwick Hills but punters believe the 11.00 is not good value, while Leonard who won in �96 and Perry �01 and are in consistent form should prove toughest to beat. This is generally a course that sorts the grain from the chaff, so expect a quality player to prevail here on Sunday.
Motor Bikes
Casey Stoner has found the winning formula again, and on the back of an impressive victory at Donington on Sunday, the young Aussie is our 2.50 equal favourite to repeat the dose again this week in the Netherlands.
Stoner went into the British MotoGP as clear 1.90 favourite after qualifying fastest, but it was Valentino Rossi (2.80) who was our worst result. After a few days of rain, the race was run in dry conditions, and that suited Stoner. Dani Pedrosa (11.00) finished well back in third position, but both Pedrosa and Rossi have a big lead on the championship points table. Rossi sits on 162 points and remains favourite at 1.55, with Pedrosa (151 pts) and Stoner (117) sharing the second line of betting at 4.00. The problem for Stoner will be that the consistency of the other two will see them continue to get points, so it will be hard for him to make any leeway.
The race in Assen this week will be a good opportunity for Rossi to improve on his good record there. He was won this race on four previous occasions, and did beat Stoner last year. Once again weather conditions will be all important, if there is any rain about, then Stoner will start shorter, if not, then it could go either way. In early betting, we have only seen money for Rossi, but Australian fans of Stoner tend to wait and see where he is positioned on the grid before getting involved.
Formula One
Ferrari continued their recent domination of the French GP when Felippe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen finished 1-2 on Sunday.
While it may not have been that big of a surprise to see them finish 1-2, the order of the finish stunned several punters who thought that Raikkonen was a good thing. The Flying Finn qualified fastest, and entered race day as hot favourite, firming from 1.55 into 1.45. The largest of several bets taken was 8000 from a new client in China, and although Massa had won the French GP last year, and was the second fastest qualifier, he was virtually friendless in the betting at 3.75. Lewis Hamilton (17.00) and Robert Kubica (21.00) attracted a lot of small bets to win the race, but each drew a bet of 1500 Euros at 3.00 to finish on the podium, but both missed a place.
Raikkonen and Massa have both firmed to win the driver's title after the weekend with Raikkonen now clear favourite at 2.00 ahead of Massa at 3.00. Lewis Hamilton is next in line at 5.00 after finishing 10th in France, but he did start from 13 on the grid after incurring a 10 place penalty in Canada two weeks prior for a pit stop infringement, so he can be forgiven for finishing well down the track.